AI Superintelligence Is Definitely Possible

Description

Superintelligence is scary, but is building it actually possible? Yes. It definitely is. To learn how you can help to secure a future where AI doesn’t kill everyone visit https://betterpathfor.ai/ You can support me on Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/Siliconversations Special thanks to my Patreon supporters: Sentient Hat Tier: Maple the Finn Nathanaël Havez MyDailyPintOfGremlinMilk Matias Badino Tom your personal annoying Bug Kelly P Old_leginary (hun vaze) C_Bookie Alexandre Le Mercier Gladamas Big Sentient Hat Tier: darkprincedarkstar Emmanuel Goldstein Red Ransil Aaron Smith Sirhaian Julian Schulz Dawid Kubicki Harrier 🦊 Snababo Jacob Mejer botfly Borderlands2 screaming gun Call Your Reps About AI Safety Patrick Kennedy Drew Spartz Sarunas Budreckis Linkie Pup raided Drarko Bread Shark Sayhan Yalvaçer Jeffrey qqlululu MrConchman Sequoia michael fares David ilan ui Siliconversations is financially supported by the Future of Life Institute. Go to https://futureoflife.org/ to learn more. All my opinions are my own. This video was: Written, directed and narrated by Siliconversations Illustrated and edited by Maris Tockler Sources (they’re a bit disorganised this time, sorry): iPhone 17 diagrams - https://support.apple.com/en-us/123034 Brain Cavity Size - https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2711771/ Wikipedia: Tsiolkovsky rocket equation - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsiolkovsky_rocket_equation Einstein's field equations - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_relativity Quantum gravity - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_gravity METR Benchmark graph - Metr.org Our World In Data: Moore’s law - https://ourworldindata.org/moores-law Various transistor speeds https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/transistor-breaks-speed-record-1.582539 https://eds.ieee.org/images/files/About/The_Silicon-Germaniun_Heterojunction_Bipolar_Transistor__-_John_Cressler.pdf#:~:text=SiGe%20(%20SiGe/Si%20)%20HBTs%20(%20Heterojunction,together%20on%20die)%2C%20SiGe%20technolo%2D%20gy%20(Fig. https://ece.gatech.edu/news/2023/12/silicon-germanium-chip-sets-new-speed-record Nerve impulses can travel along a neuron at speeds of up to 150 meters per second. Neuroscience. 2nd edition. - Increased Conduction Velocity as a Result of Myelination: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK10921/ The cortical fast-spiking neurons in your brain can fire around 450 times per second. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5067378/ The following are my sources and rough calculations for the claim that neurons are over 100,000 times larger than transistors: Granule Cells have a somata diameter of 5-10 micrometers. https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/neuroscience/granule-cell I approximated this as a sphere with diameter 5 micrometers, giving a volume of 65.45 cubic micrometers. An individual “5nm” FinFET transistor was predicted to have a width and length of approx 106nm and a height of approx 50 nm in 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20220525034803/https://irds.ieee.org/images/files/pdf/2021/2021IRDS_MM.pdf Note: It’s quite hard to find accurate information on the size of transistors because the industry uses “5nm”, “3nm” etc as marketing terms (i.e. these terms do not correspond to actual feature sizes of the transistor). Approximating this shape as a rectangular prism, the volume of the transistor would be 0.0005618 cubic micrometers. 65.45/0.0005618 = 116,500.533998 This is the basis of my claim that neurons are over 100,000 times larger than transistors. Given that Granule cells are small neurons, I took the lower end of the range for their size, I ignore all parts of the neuron except for the somata, and transistors have shrunk since 2021, I think my rough calculations are good enough to justify my claim (although they wouldn’t be good enough for peer review so please don’t cite this video as a source for that claim). Speed of electricity in wire https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_factor#Typical_velocity_factors The unbearable slowness of being: Why do we live at 10 bits/s? - https://www.cell.com/neuron/fulltext/S0896-6273(24)00808-0 Statement on Superintelligence - https://superintelligence-statement.org/ A Better Path For AI - https://betterpathfor.ai/ AI Use Disclosure: YouTube generated the subtitles, which I edited manually. I sometimes use Claude to find references.